How “Argo’s” Best Picture Win Voids any Purpose the Academy Awards Had

There’s got to be a morning after, and so ends the 85^th Academy Awards.  The prizes have been given out; there was a lot of heartbreak, and now its time to gear up for the next show.  Last night the top Prize went to Ben Affleck’s “Argo,” which was the frontrunner going into the race because of all the predecessor awards it racked up.  The Producer’s Guild of America, the Director’s Guild of America, the Screen Actors Guild of America, and the Writer’s Guild of America all gave “Argo” the top honors in each of their awards shows.  So of course it was only natural that “Argo” would be the favorite going into the race.  There was just one thing wrong: “Argo” didn’t receive an Oscar nomination for Best Director.

I sense the movie wasn’t even loved by the Academy all that much because not only did it fail to secure a nomination that is practically essential to win the top prize, it came in fifth place in terms of nominations with a measly 7 (the movies leading it had 12, 11, and two films got 8).  So what does this mean?  Well, it means that the Academy Awards officially made themselves irrelevant.  Even more so than they already are to most people.  And this isn’t because “Argo’s” a bad movie.  On the contrary, I gave the film the full five stars and put it at number three on my Best Films of the Year list.  So why I say that “Argo” winning made the Academy irrelevant?

To start this story let us look back to late last year when the Academy announced that they would have the voters turn in their ballots before the guilds announced their nominations.  There had been a lot of criticism that the Academy voting body was just a group of sheep that would follow the guilds wherever they went.  Granted, the Academy has leaned on the guilds for years, but now that we have bloggers and Twitter people can follow them and the race becomes rather boring as one film wins everything.  So the Academy decided they would cast their votes for the nominees before the guilds announced theirs, and would open the real voting up after the guilds had ended.

The point of this was to allow the voters to have more time to reflect on the awards without just following the crowd.  Once Ben Affleck got snubbed for Best Director though, the guilds got a little prissy with them.  Three of the Best Director nominations weren’t close to what the guilds had predicted.  Where was Kathryn Bigelow?  Where was Quentin Tarrentino?  What about Tom Hooper?  And where was Ben Affleck?  The actor who reinvented himself as a great director.  How DARE they snub him?!  He’s the golden standard all actors should look to.  When the dust settled, the guilds decided the Academy had done a great wrong in the world and set out to fix it.

Now the Golden Globe “Argo” won was irrelevant because the Globes aired the night of the Oscar nominations, so their choice of “Argo” probably had more to do with the fact that they could get Ben Affleck on stage that night instead of spiting the Academy.  The rest of the guilds buckled down though.  They were going to prove to the Academy that they had made a mistake, and they were going to push their underdog through to the big prize.  And so one after another the guilds gave “Argo” their top spots in the awards.  The PGA gave “Argo” Best Picture of the year.  This is the one award no one really complained about though because the nominees were so good anything could win.

But then the SAG gave “Argo” the award for Best Ensemble Cast.  This was an award that appeared to be a lock for “Silver Linings Playbook,” which had several actors up for individual awards at the SAG (and the Oscars, becoming the first film since “Reds” to have acting nods in all four categories).  In contrast, the only actor singled out as being award worthy for “Argo” was Alan Arkin for Best Supporting Actor.  We figured that could have been a fluke though since the actors especially took it hard when Affleck was snubbed, so this could have been their way of getting even.  But then the Scribbler and WGA gave “Argo” the award of Best Adapted Screenplay.  What was going on?

It had strong competition from “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Life of Pi,” sure, but how did “Argo’s” screenplay beat “Lincolns” brilliant screenplay.  Then Affleck won Best Director at the DGA.  At this point I could see what was happening because Ang Lee and Steven Spielberg were competing for that award.  And with the “Argo” train picking up these awards most of us knew better than to guess his win was the result of a split vote.  Then the British Academy Film Awards gave it Best Picture and Director.  The train was speeding up and nothing could stop it.  The industry was making its point, and they were making it loud.

Now it came down to the Academy, the one awards show in town that liked it but didn’t love it.  They hadn’t been casting votes yet and now they were open.  What would they do?  Would they go their own way, prove to the guilds that they didn’t run them?  Or were they going to shake their heads in disappointment and let themselves be bullied?  Again, I want to take this moment to remind you that “Argo” is NOT a bad film!  Now that it’s part of film history people will be blessed to be watching it for years to come.  But what was at stake here, whether people realized it or not, was that the Academy’s independence was on the line.  They could have followed the crowd or done their own thing.

When they gave Ang Lee Best Director there was that sense that they were going their own path.  Sure, Affleck couldn’t win this award anyway, but “Life of Pi” was a movie the Academy loved very much.  They showered it with 11 nominations when most of the guilds were shunning it.  At this point it had won four Oscars compared to “Argo’s” two.  If “Life of Pi” was given Best Picture it would have been the Academy looking straight at the guilds and (to quote “Argo’s” most popular line) telling them “Argo f**k yourselves!”  It was their moment to shine.  To prove that they still had a voice in an industry that got carried away with the Ben Affleck pity train.  The movie has Best Director in the bad and the film had 11 nominations, so surely they wouldn’t go with “Argo” now…right?

Well, Michelle Obama opened the envelope and said the word we had all been preparing ourselves for: “Argo.”  That was it.  In moment the Academy cowered out and made themselves irrelevant.  That moment proved that regardless how they spaced the voting out, they would always follow the guilds even if they didn’t have passion for the film that was winning.  And now the Academy will have some explaining to do.  They’ll have to explain why they caved in the endgame of the show.  They will have to explain how a movie with so few wins and nominations could have been named Best Picture over “Lincoln,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” and “Life of Pi” (which , if last night was any indication, was in a position to win).

Now the question remains though: If the Academy lets the guilds tell them what to award, what is the point of an Academy Awards?  Why do this circus?  How can you claim to be leaders in quality films when you’re too afraid to follow your own heart in the face of lots of peer pressure?  And why should people care anymore if the winner goes to whatever the PGA says (fyi, the PGA is the first major guild to give out their awards)?  Though we’ll have to see if I’m right, the Academy may have just squashed what little respect they had with the film community.  If they are to continue to be relevant, they will need to make plans to distance themselves from the guilds as much as possible.  Show people that they reflect on the movies regardless of what the guilds say.

And they need to do it soon, because the clock is ticking…

Here Comes the Family (Films)

This is a great time to go to the movies if you've got families.  "The Muppets" was released to great critical acclaim and has re-introduced the characters in a way that means they'll be coming back in a big way after the dust settles with this film.  "Arthur Christmas" was released to great critical acclaim and is poised to become a new holiday classic for many families.  And Martin Scoresese's "Hugo" was released to great critical acclaim and is hailed as one of the best films of the year.  In fact, these three films are three of the best reviewed films of the year.  I know, I was sort of surprised too.  We're lucky to get one great family film a YEAR (much less three in a WEEK)!

So people have wondered that since the reviews are great, where do these films stand with Oscar?  Well, "Arthur Christmas" is officially the front-runner to win Best Animated Feature.  Provided that Spielberg's "The Adventures of Tintin" doesn't pull a surprise win, I think this is the one to beat.  "The Muppets" will get a Best Song nomination for "Pictures in My Head," but I think the witty screenplay has a chance of being nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay as well.  As for "Hugo"...well folks, this is the big one.  I think "Hugo" will be running in the race for Best Picture.  Word-of-mouth is going to make this film a sensation.  The 3D may wake the Academy up and make them realize this style of film making needs its own award.

Despite being pretty reliable, Scoresese is an underdog because he's directing a family film instead of a gritty drama (the Academy loves underdog stories).  Finally though, this is a movie (as Sasha Stone constantly reminds us) is a movie the Academy could just "like."  The trick to winning in this race is to be a movie that everyone can like (if not outright love), and in this respect "Hugo" has a lot going for it.  Either way, ignoring the Oscar race altogether, this is rare time when family films are plentiful in theaters, and parents need to take advantage of this because who knows when this much quality family entertainment will just fall into our laps again?

The Double Hitter Oscars?

Never before in all the years I've been watching the Oscars have I seen anything like the potential number of double nominees this year. We have not one, not two, not three, but FOUR actors who are battling themselves in Oscar potential!

George Clooney is the one who stands to get the most Oscar nominations next year. He's a strong contender to be nominated for Best Actor in “The Descendants” and Best Supporting Actor in “The Ides of March.” He also is favored to get nominations for Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay for “The Ides of March,” and that film is looking like a Best Picture candidate (of which he is one of the producers). Left untouched, Clooney could be looking at FOUR Oscar nominations next year!

Another actor who could pull off a double nomination is Brad Pitt, who is getting rave reviews in his starring role for “Moneyball” and his supporting role in “The Tree of Life.” I think he's got a better chance at winning Best Actor, but a renewed interest in “The Tree of Life” could give this film an unexpected come awards time (and Pitt a Best Supporting Actor nomination).

Philip Seymore Hoffman is also on a role as he delivers two stand out performances in “Moneyball” as a skeptical coach, and in “The Ides of March” as a campaigner who values loyalty above all else. Since both these performances could be run in the Best Supporting Actor category, he can only be nominated for one. If it comes down to it, I think his performance in “The Ides of March” is the juicier role (and Jonah Hill is getting more praise for his supporting role in “Moneyball”).

The true wild card in all this is Ryan Gosling though. He delivers two star making performances in “Drive” and “The Ides of March.” While I believe his performance in “Drive” is the better performance, both performances are so loved that he might split the vote and wind up getting nominated for neither film.

 

There's some talk that Jessica Chastain could be nominated for Best Supporting Actress for either “The Tree of Life” or “The Help,” but I'm not completely buying it. Her performance in “The Tree of Life” is poetic, but since its silent the Academy could rule that Terrence Malicks direction is giving the real performance there. As for her performance in “The Help”...its more likely, but Octavia Spencer is running away with the Oscar talk here, so I'm skeptical. Either way, its going to be VERY interesting to see how this all plays out!

What Are Chances of Oscar Love For "50/50": About 50/50 I'd Say

So one of the movies that I'm going to cautiously be keeping an eye on during this Oscar race is "50/50."  I haven't written my review yet (it should come in at around three and a half stars for me), but spoil it a bit for you, this is a good movie.  It may not be the greatest film in the world, but its amazing how it takes a serious situation that is so bleak for everyone, and manages to make it funny while also acknowledging the despair that comes along with such bad news.  Again, it may not be a great film, but its a good film in what it ends up doing.  Seth Rogan was his usual funny self (though maybe a bit too routine to get an Oscar nomination), and Anna Kendrick was good as a young psychiatrist trying to help the main character.

However, the standout performance is obviously that of Joseph Gordon-Levitt, who not only brings humor to the role, but also frustration and despair.  A role like this is tricky because the main character has to be confident enough for us to believe he can survive this, but vulnerable enough that we feel his pain.  He carries this movie so well, that I want to seriously consider his chances at getting a Best Actor nomination for the role.  This is the sort of juicy role the Academy loves, and we shouldn't discredit this one just because its a comedy.  A think other potential nominees include Best Original Screenplay and Best Makeup.  Will it make the Best Picture lineup?  Hmm...maybe.  It is a movie that would appear to get some number one votes, so you never know.  For now though, Levitt's performance is the one to watch out for.

Why Harry Potter Is NOT Getting A Best Picture Nomination!

This is going to hurt me to say it, more than it will hurt you to read it, but it must be said: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II" is NOT going to be one of the ten nominees for Best Picture!  I know its not a done deal until the nominations are actually announced, but its so close to a done deal its worth dealing with now rather than later.  We had a brief flirt with the idea that it could get in (even Entertainment Weekly and Awards Daily briefly considered the possibility), but now its time to climb off that cloud and face the reality.  To understand why we flirted with this idea and why it's not going to happen.  First of all, there was that opening weekend.  Never before had we gotten such a strong opening that made so much money.  The Academy respects money and success.

However, even though "The Dark Knight" and "Shrek 2" are in the top ten biggest money makers of all time, neither one got a Best Picture nomination.  Movies like this tend to have a better Oscar chance when the film has legs.  It sends a strong message to the Academy that the film is being watched, re-watched, and is being recommended to everyone.  This movie, frankly, dropped like a brick the second weekend.  It stuck around for a few weeks, but there were no real legs and no momentum at all.  That suggests that the fans - and ONLY the fans - really went to see this!  Considering that the Academy has yet to award any of the films a single award in the past eleven years, I think its safe to say there aren't as many fans in the Academy as we'd like to think there are.

Also folks, this is not only the 8th film in the franchise, its the second part of a two part film.  This film is hostile to newcomers.  It makes little to no sense if you haven't been watching it all this time, and even if it does make sense you don't get the emotional depth from the film without having committed to the previous films.  I know "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" swept several years ago, but even that movie is somewhat friendly to newcomers.  This one...isn't.  I'm sorry, but its not.  I know I gave the film a five star review, but before you bring that I up I want to mention the note at the bottom of the review that said the star grade was variable at best, and that whether you had seen the previous films or not could significantly alter the grade for someone.

Finally, there are just some better movies coming out.  "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II" may be a very good movie, but is it better than "The Tree of Life," "Drive," or even "Bridesmaids?"  Probably not (though again, its a matter of personal opinion).  With upcoming films like "The Artist," "The Idles of March," and "Moneyball" getting rave reviews, do you really think the Academy is going to remember a film to a series they've largely ignored?  I feel there's more I could say (and you Potter fans are likely to debate me to death in the comments section below), but it's a sad fact we have to get used to: "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II" is not getting a Best Picture nomination.  And the sooner we can accept that, the sooner we can move on.

"J. Edgar" Trailer

Today we get our first real look at Clint Eastwood's "J. Edgar."  While Eastwood has not had a film in serious competition since "Letters From Iwo Jima," never underestimate him.  That's how so many people lost money the year "The Aviator" was supposed to sweep the Oscars and give Marty his much coveted Oscar.  This film is an Eastwood film, and he's directed two Best Picture winners.  It stars Leonardo DiCaprio, who routinely shows up in the Best Actor category.  It has a screenplay by Dustin Lance Black, who won an Oscar just a couple of years ago for "Milk."  Finally, it's a biopic about a VERY controversial figure!  Yeah, we haven't seen it yet, but it might be best to consider it a contender.

Best Picture Prediction Count

I've got more articles to write (one that Harry Potter fans might be upset with me once written), but for statistics sake, here's where my personal Oscar count would be fore my (current) five Best Picture nominees:

• Drive: 8 nominations
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II: 11 nominations
• The Help: 4 nominations
• Midnight In Paris: 3 nominations
• The Tree of Life: 6 nominations

Again, these are just predictions, and just because I would nominate one film with more than double the nominations than other films, that does not make that film the best film of the year.  It only means I think there are more individual aspects of that film that are worth nominating that the others don't have ("Midnight In Paris" is one of the best films of the year DESPITE not being a very flashy film).

State of the Race: Best Picture Midyear

I was supposed to do this in the middle of the year, but there were so few contenders in the race I delayed it a bit. Now more films have come out, so lets look at how the Best Picture race is shaping up.

Film: Drive
Going For It: Film opened to rave reviews. Audiences love it! Critics are getting giddy! Released late enough in the year that voters can remember it. Ryan Gosling is a favorite to win Best Actor.
Going Against It: Film is dark. So far the opening box office has been soft at best. Might not have staying power.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Right now it's looking good, but we'll have to see if it keeps its traction against new contenders as they come out.

Film: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part II
Going For It: Final installment of long running series. Most successful movie of the year. Critics love it and audiences...well, you know how audiences responded to it. Had a great opening week to almost half a billion dollars...
Going Against It: ...and then dropped like a brick the following week. Fantasy movies don't do well with the Academy. Harry Potter has yet to win any Oscars...PERIOD! The high praise was fleeting at best.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Sorry Potter fans, but I think this ones out.

Film: The Help
Going For It: Strong word-of-mouth. Surprise hit of the year. Cast features mostly women and practically everyone is going to see it.
Going Against It: Cast features mostly women (men outnumber women in the Academy). There's concerns about how race and relations are portrayed.
Chances of Getting Nominated: I'll be surprised if this one isn't in.

Film: Midnight In Paris
Going For It: Smart script. Weird premise that works. Woody Allen usually gets at least a screenplay nomination.
Going Against It: Movie might be too lighthearted. Allen is still a somewhat controversial figure in the movie world.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Eh...bit of a toss up at the moment.

Film: The Tree of Life
Going For It: Extremely artsy. Critics love it. Terrence Malick alone carries a lot of respect with the Academy members. Won the Palm d'Or for Best Picture at the Cannes Film Festival.
Going Against It: Audiences hate it. Most people don't get it. About as non-traditional an Oscar movie as you get.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Very little...much as I hate to admit it.

Ryan Gosling To “Drive” To Oscar

Well folks, there's another movie to keep an eye on: “Drive.” This action film has opened soft at the box office (a little over $4 million on the opening day), but the rave reviews are piling up. It appears to be a “love or hate it” film, but so far more people seem to love it than hate it. It's not even polarizing female audiences, which is amazing since “Drive” is being advertised as a more mature version of “The Fast & The Furious” (though I still conclude that “Fast Five” was the most pleasant surprise for me this year). The general praise from all the reviews Rotten Tomatoes picked up on is “a hyper-stylized blend of striking imagery and violence, Drive represents a fully realized vision of arthouse action.”

So what we have is a summer movie that was so artsy, that the studios decided to release it later in the year to capitalize more on the awards than the summer crowds. Did the studio do this because they trusted the more serious movie fans to carry this better than the teenage summer crowd that normally abandons movies after their opening weekend? Who knows. Aside from people commenting on how artful the film is though, the main praise is going to Ryan Gosling. His performance is considered the driving force behind this movie (no pun intended...if you want to believe me), and though he's young, there are few major performances so far this year that are challenging it. So far his biggest competition is George Clooney (ironically, his co-star of the upcoming “The Idles of March”) in “The Descendants,” Jean Dujardin in “The Artist,” and Michael Fassbender in “Shame.”

So what chance does he stand of winning? So far...hard to say, the movies listed above have yet to be seen by the audiences, so its hard to decide how this will swing. Here's a few things to consider though. First of all, George Clooney is clearly the biggest threat because his film HAS been seen by a good chunk of critics, and the buzz is already building! That said, he's won an Oscar, and that (sadly) sometimes counts against you). Jean Dujardin is riding high on the praise of “The Artist,” but he's largely an unknown, and that could hurt him. Michael Fassbender is known to audiences as Magneto from “X-Men: First Class,” but his role in “Shame” is that of a sex addict, which might be a rather challenging film for members of the Academy to go for.

One thing seems certain though: Gosling is in for a Best Actor nomination. Maybe more performances will come along, but this seems like a safe bet. “Drive” also seems to be in a good position for supporting nods, art direction nods, and even a Best Picture nod doesn't seem out of the question at this point. It will all come down to a couple big things: Whether the Academy and audiences embrace the film, and whether or not they “like” it enough to give it the nominations.

Back In Game: The State of the Race

Well, more than a year after I stopped updating this blog I thought I would never return to it. To be honest, I almost deleted this blog because I felt it was just taking up space.  Well, a recent book project I'm working on (which I'll discuss more about in a few days) sort of jolted me back to this blog, and I realized that this blog still may have some usefulness to it.  So how do I make my grand return?  Why, but discussing the state of the race.  And there are three films I want to focus on.  The first two are the closest things to locks on a Best Picture nomination, with a third that sounds like a sure thing on paper (but a long shot in practice).  The first is Terrence Malick's very polarizing "The Tree of Life."  Though praised by many (including myself) as a masterpiece that must been seen to be believed, it never-the-less has not caught on with the public.

They don't get it.  They wonder what the point of it is.  The non-linear structure confuses them.  I think most people go in expecting a story and don't realize that "The Tree of Life" is a movie more about ideas than what happens to the characters on screen.  I know that sounds strange, but that's pretty much what it is.  Despite it clearly being the best film of the year so far, this is the same Academy who awarded "The King's Speech" (a good movie by the way) a Best Picture nomination over the more ambitious "The Social Network."  Why?  Hard to tell, but there was a lot of talk that most members of the Academy didn't even know what Facebook was.  If THAT was a problem, I see "The Tree of Life" having a much steeper climb!  The other movie that seems like a good bet right now is Woody Allen's "Midnight In Paris."  Ironically, this is the polar opposite of "The Tree of Life."

This is a movie that is story driven, has well defined characters, and have a journey and destination in mind.  That fact that it's popular AND smart makes this a good bet even if the coming months should bring us more ambitious films!  Part me is still a little cynical of the idea that the Academy would nominate this for Best Picture when they couldn't bring themselves to nominate "Match Point" for anything other than it's screenplay, but with the Best Picture number that could be anywhere between five to ten films...well, anythings possible.  And then we have...

..."Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II."  None of the Harry Potter films have won Best Picture.  None of the Harry Potter films have won any Oscars.  Most of the movies are critically mixed.  But "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II" could change all that.  It's opened to the best reviews of the franchise.  It's got some of the best reviews of the year.  They match up (if not pass) the previous ten years Best Picture winners.  Not to mention audiences around the world are eating it up to the point where it could potentially make more money than "The Dark Knight" and "Avatar."  If this was any other movie, it would be automatically considered a strong Best Picture nominee (if not winner).  Since it's Harry Potter though, we're just going to have to wait and see if the Academy follows the audiences cheers.

With so little competition nobody knows anything yet.  Well, actually, I do know one thing: For the first time I can think of, Pixar has absolutely no chance of being nominated in Best Animated Feature.  That may make that race at least a little more interesting.

Back In The Game

After a month long break it's time to get ready for the 83rd Academy Awards.  As it stands there are still ten films that can be nominated for Best Picture, and already there are some early stand outs.  "Alice In Wonderland" is not likely to get any major awards nominations, but Tim Burton's latest should easily sneak into some of the visual effects categories.  Right now there are two movies that look like good potential Best Picture nominees: "Shutter Island" and "Greenberg."  "Shutter Island" would make perfect sense early on even in this game.  Yeah it's a horror film but it's also directed by Martin Scoresese and starring Leonardo DiCaprio.  Both these men look like they are potential Best Director and Best Actor nominees (respectively).

The other Best Picture potential is Noah Baumbach's critically acclaimed "Greenberg."  This movie has potential for nominees for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Supporting Actress.  However if there's only one nomination for this film it very well could be for Ben Stiller's remarkable out-of-character performance as the title character.  Having finally found a role that shows he can be a serious actor, Stiller looks like a shoe-in for Best Actor at this point in time.  Other early potential nominees is Dreamworks "How To Train Your Dragon," which is threatening to defeat Pixar's winning streak in the Best Animated Feature category.

Also of note is Disney's critically acclaimed documentary "Waking Sleeping Beauty."  Though the Academy ignored the last Disney doc "The Boys: The Sherman Brothers," this new movie about Disney's great revival of their animation legacy in the late 80's is getting audiences to stand up cheering after the movie is over.  Chances are something more important might win the prize in the end, but this movie has the potential to get audiences behind it enough to get the nod.  The race may just be starting, but it's looking oh so promising already.

'Hurt Locker' Wins Best Picture!

 

• Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier, Greg Shapiro
• Best Director: “The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow
• Best Actor: Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
• Best Actress: Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”
• Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”
• Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique in “Precious”
• Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker” Written by Mark Boal
• Best Adapted Screenplay: “Precious” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
• Best Foreign Language: “The Secret in Their Eyes (El Secreto de Sus Ojos)” Argentina
• Best Animated Film: “Up” Pete Docter
• Best Documentary: “The Cove” Louie Psihoyos and Fisher Stevens
• Best Cinematography: “Avatar” Mauro Fiore
• Best Art Direction: Avatar” Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Kim Sinclair
• Best Costumes: “The Young Victoria” Sandy Powell
• Best Editing: “The Hurt Locker” Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
• Best Score: “Up” Michael Giacchino
• Best Song: “The Weary Kind”(Crazy Heart) Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett
• Best Makeup: “Star Trek” Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
• Best Visual Effects: “Avatar” Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andrew R. Jones
• Best Sound Editing: “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson
• Best Sound Mixing: “The Hurt Locker” Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
• Best Animated Short: “Logorama” Nicolas Schmerkin
• Best Live Action Short: “The New Tenants” Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson
• Best Documentary Short: “Music by Prudence” Roger Ross Williams and Elinor

Well, that was a fun ride huh?  Come back in three days when we wipe the board clean and start all over again.

Sizing Up Best Picture: District 9

Now we tackle a rarity in the Oscar race: A science fiction film nominated for Best Picture.  Let's see what the chances are...

District 9

Nominations: 

• Best Picture
• Best Visual Effects
• Best Film Editing
• Best Adapted Screenplay

Going For It:  Audiences REALLY love this movie!  Surprise hit of the year.  A winning producing role for Peter Jackson.  Has more then three nominations including a coveted screenplay nomination.

Going Against It:  Science fiction films rarely click with members of the Academy.  Lack of directing or acting nomination.  Movie came out early in the year (Academy favors winter releases).

Chances of Winning:  Another "lucky to be nominated" film.  That said though this did pick up more nominations then I expected it to (despite the accurate predictions on this site), and it does give more hope that maybe the Academy has warmed up to science fiction enough to nominate more of these films in the future.  But as for winning this isn't likely.

New "Toy Story 3" Trailer

More Toy Story 3 Info

We now have more of an idea of what "Toy Story 3" will look like.  I like what I see, and while some people are complaining because they don't like the idea of making sequels...well, if anyone can make a good sequel it's Pixar.  With "Up's" recent Best Picture nomination some are wondering whether or not "Toy Story 3" is next.  Eh, hard to say.  The movie would have to be special to get nominated there.  The Academy is lukewarm to live action sequels, so an animated sequel seems more unlikely right now.  Either way we almost certainly have another Best Animated Feature nomination on their hans.

Sizing Up Best Picture: The Blind Side

I missed a day.  Sorry about that.  Let's tackle the next film right now, which is...

The Blind Side

Nominations: 

• Best Picture
• Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role - Sandra Bullock 

Going For It:  Audiences love this movie.  Sandra Bullock helped make this movie successful.  It's a biopic and the Academy LOVES biopics!  The highest grossing sports movie in years.  Academy loves underdog sports movies (see "Rocky" and "Chariots of Fire").  Portrays good Christian values.  Bullock is practically a lock to win Best Actress.

Going Against It:  Some people feel the movie is self-indulgent.  True life story is more interesting then the movie.  Real life football player comes off looking and "dumb and helpless" without a white woman's help.  Only 2 nominations, neither of which go to the writing or directing. Not as critically acclaimed as some of the other nominees.

Chances of Winning:  Though Bullock will certainly win Best Actress, this film feels like a "lucky to be nominated" film.  It's just not big enough, and I think the nomination is more for Bullock and the fact there were ten movies to vote for this year.

Back In The Game And...Oh Look, Oscar Nominations!

Hi folks, I'm back.  I know that being absent from an Oscar blog during the height of the nominations process (not to mention the nominations themselves) is incredibly fatal to a site like this but...well, it's like this.  And for those who don't want to read that article let me summarize it like this: When you move you better make sure to be prepared for the internet to not work for weeks at a time.  Not only was my internet provider EXTREMELY slow in getting to my new apartment and setting things up, but the stupid service didn't even work after they set it up!  This is why I missed commenting about Oscar predictions, and why I missed the nominations themselves.

But hey, we have Best Picture nominations.  Ten for the first time in years!  They are:

1. Avatar
2. The Blind Side
3. District 9
4. An Education
5. The Hurt Locker
6. Inglorious Basterds
7. Precious
8. A Serious Man
9. Up 
10. Up In The Air

For that most part I'd say that's a pretty decent selection.  There are critical favorites, fan favorites, and a couple of surprises (one good one...not so good).  So to make up for lost time (and to take advantage of the delayed telecast) let's discuss the pros and cons of all the nominations.  I'll do one movie//director/actor/actress a day (or at least I'll try to).  We'll go in alphabetical order so that means we'll start with...

Avatar

Nominations:

	Best Picture	James Cameron and Jon Landau	Pending
	Best Director	James Cameron	Pending
	Best Art Direction	Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg (Art Direction); Kim Sinclair (Set Decoration)	Pending
	Best Achievement in Cinematography	Mauro Fiore	Pending
	Best Film Editing	Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron	Pending
	Best Original Score	James Horner	Pending
	Best Sound Editing	Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle	Pending
	Best Sound	Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson	Pending
	Best Visual Effects

Going For It:  Aside from being loved by the public and wildly popular "Avatar" is an "event movie."  It has broken new ground in how movies are made and sold to the general public.  It's the highest grossing film of all time.  Critics and audiences both love it.  It helped expand the idea of how popular IMAX and 3D can be.  Like "Titanic" the love story is universal, and Zoe Saldana's performance has been hailed as the science fiction performance of the year.  The movie is one of two movies that leads the nominations with 9.

Going Against It:  Some people feel the movie is self-indulgent.  James Cameron won before and was less then gracious about it.  When you consider how many of the top grossing films actually WON Best Picture you'll know that financial success does not mean you'll get awards!  There are no nominations for acting or for writing.  Some feel that without the 3D or giant screen the movie would be very standard.


Chances of Winning:  If it weren't for "The Hurt Locker" this would be a lock.

PGA Nominations Announced

The Producers Guild America have chosen their nominees.  They are:

AVATAR
Producers: James Cameron, Jon Landau
DISTRICT 9
Producers: Carolynne Cunningham, Peter Jackson
AN EDUCATION
Producers: Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey
THE HURT LOCKER
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.
INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
Producer: Lawrence Bender
INVICTUS
Producers: Clint Eastwood, Rob Lorenz, Lori McCreary , Mace Neufeld
PRECIOUS: BASED ON THE NOVEL PUSH BY SAPPHIRE
Producers: Lee Daniels, Gary Magness, Sarah Siegel-Magness
STAR TREK
Producers: J.J. Abrams, Damon Lindelof
UP
Producer: Jonas Rivera
UP IN THE AIR
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.


PGA Producer of the Year Award in Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:
9
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.
CORALINE
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.
FANTASTIC MR. FOX
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.
THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG
Producer: Peter Del Vecho
UP
Producer: Jonas Rivera
PGA Producer of the Year Award in Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures:
BURMA VJ
Producer: Lise Lense-Moller
The COVE
Producers: Paula DuPre Pesman, Fisher Stevens
SERGIO
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.
SOUNDTRACK FOR A REVOLUTION
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.
David L. Wolper Producer of the Year Award in Long-Form Television*:
GEORGIA O’KEEFFE
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.
GREY GARDENS
Producers: David Coatsworth, Lucy Donnelly, Rachael Horovitz, Michael Sucsy
LITTLE DORRIT
Producers: Lisa Osborne, Anne Pivcevic
PRAYERS FOR BOBBY
Producers: Stanley M. Brooks, Damian Ganczewski, David Permut, Daniel Sladek, Chris Taaffe
THE PRISONER
Producer(s): Awaiting final credit determination.
TAKING CHANCE
Producers: Lori Keith Douglas, Ross Katz, Brad Krevoy, Cathy Wischner-Sola

EW's "25 Movies You Need To See Before Oscar Night"

Entertainment Weekly has published their "25 Movies You Need To See Before Oscar Night" list in their latest issue.  For those who don't subscribe I've reprinted the list here (as well as links to those available for purchase if you want to help support the site).  Oh yeah, and Happy New Year everyone!

1. (500) Days of Summer DVD / BluRay / Video on Demand
   
2. Avatar
3. The Blind Side
4. Bright Star
5. Crazy Heart
6. District 9 DVD / BluRay / UMD / Video on Demand
   
7. An Education
8. Fantastic Mr. Fox
9. The Hurt Locker DVD / BluRay / Video on Demand
   
10. The Informant
11. Inglorious Basterds DVD / BluRay / Video on Demand
    
12. Invictus
13. It's Complicated
14. Julie & Julia DVD / BluRay / Video on Demand
    
15. The Last Station
    
16. The Lovely Bones
    
17. The Messenger
18. Nine
    
19. Precious
20. A Serious Man
21. A Single Man
22. Star Trek DVD / BluRay
    
23. Up DVD / BluRay
    
24. Up In The Air
25. The Young Victorian

Start checking out showtimes on Fandango folks.