I was supposed to do this in the middle of the year, but there were so few contenders in the race I delayed it a bit. Now more films have come out, so lets look at how the Best Picture race is shaping up.
Film: Drive
Going For It: Film opened to rave reviews. Audiences love it! Critics are getting giddy! Released late enough in the year that voters can remember it. Ryan Gosling is a favorite to win Best Actor.
Going Against It: Film is dark. So far the opening box office has been soft at best. Might not have staying power.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Right now it's looking good, but we'll have to see if it keeps its traction against new contenders as they come out.
Going For It: Final installment of long running series. Most successful movie of the year. Critics love it and audiences...well, you know how audiences responded to it. Had a great opening week to almost half a billion dollars...
Going Against It: ...and then dropped like a brick the following week. Fantasy movies don't do well with the Academy. Harry Potter has yet to win any Oscars...PERIOD! The high praise was fleeting at best.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Sorry Potter fans, but I think this ones out.
Going For It: Strong word-of-mouth. Surprise hit of the year. Cast features mostly women and practically everyone is going to see it.
Going Against It: Cast features mostly women (men outnumber women in the Academy). There's concerns about how race and relations are portrayed.
Chances of Getting Nominated: I'll be surprised if this one isn't in.
Going For It: Smart script. Weird premise that works. Woody Allen usually gets at least a screenplay nomination.
Going Against It: Movie might be too lighthearted. Allen is still a somewhat controversial figure in the movie world.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Eh...bit of a toss up at the moment.
Going For It: Extremely artsy. Critics love it. Terrence Malick alone carries a lot of respect with the Academy members. Won the Palm d'Or for Best Picture at the Cannes Film Festival.
Going Against It: Audiences hate it. Most people don't get it. About as non-traditional an Oscar movie as you get.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Very little...much as I hate to admit it.
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