The Double Hitter Oscars?

Never before in all the years I've been watching the Oscars have I seen anything like the potential number of double nominees this year. We have not one, not two, not three, but FOUR actors who are battling themselves in Oscar potential!

George Clooney is the one who stands to get the most Oscar nominations next year. He's a strong contender to be nominated for Best Actor in “The Descendants” and Best Supporting Actor in “The Ides of March.” He also is favored to get nominations for Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay for “The Ides of March,” and that film is looking like a Best Picture candidate (of which he is one of the producers). Left untouched, Clooney could be looking at FOUR Oscar nominations next year!

Another actor who could pull off a double nomination is Brad Pitt, who is getting rave reviews in his starring role for “Moneyball” and his supporting role in “The Tree of Life.” I think he's got a better chance at winning Best Actor, but a renewed interest in “The Tree of Life” could give this film an unexpected come awards time (and Pitt a Best Supporting Actor nomination).

Philip Seymore Hoffman is also on a role as he delivers two stand out performances in “Moneyball” as a skeptical coach, and in “The Ides of March” as a campaigner who values loyalty above all else. Since both these performances could be run in the Best Supporting Actor category, he can only be nominated for one. If it comes down to it, I think his performance in “The Ides of March” is the juicier role (and Jonah Hill is getting more praise for his supporting role in “Moneyball”).

The true wild card in all this is Ryan Gosling though. He delivers two star making performances in “Drive” and “The Ides of March.” While I believe his performance in “Drive” is the better performance, both performances are so loved that he might split the vote and wind up getting nominated for neither film.

 

There's some talk that Jessica Chastain could be nominated for Best Supporting Actress for either “The Tree of Life” or “The Help,” but I'm not completely buying it. Her performance in “The Tree of Life” is poetic, but since its silent the Academy could rule that Terrence Malicks direction is giving the real performance there. As for her performance in “The Help”...its more likely, but Octavia Spencer is running away with the Oscar talk here, so I'm skeptical. Either way, its going to be VERY interesting to see how this all plays out!

Best Picture Prediction Count

I've got more articles to write (one that Harry Potter fans might be upset with me once written), but for statistics sake, here's where my personal Oscar count would be fore my (current) five Best Picture nominees:

• Drive: 8 nominations
• Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II: 11 nominations
• The Help: 4 nominations
• Midnight In Paris: 3 nominations
• The Tree of Life: 6 nominations

Again, these are just predictions, and just because I would nominate one film with more than double the nominations than other films, that does not make that film the best film of the year.  It only means I think there are more individual aspects of that film that are worth nominating that the others don't have ("Midnight In Paris" is one of the best films of the year DESPITE not being a very flashy film).

State of the Race: Best Picture Midyear

I was supposed to do this in the middle of the year, but there were so few contenders in the race I delayed it a bit. Now more films have come out, so lets look at how the Best Picture race is shaping up.

Film: Drive
Going For It: Film opened to rave reviews. Audiences love it! Critics are getting giddy! Released late enough in the year that voters can remember it. Ryan Gosling is a favorite to win Best Actor.
Going Against It: Film is dark. So far the opening box office has been soft at best. Might not have staying power.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Right now it's looking good, but we'll have to see if it keeps its traction against new contenders as they come out.

Film: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part II
Going For It: Final installment of long running series. Most successful movie of the year. Critics love it and audiences...well, you know how audiences responded to it. Had a great opening week to almost half a billion dollars...
Going Against It: ...and then dropped like a brick the following week. Fantasy movies don't do well with the Academy. Harry Potter has yet to win any Oscars...PERIOD! The high praise was fleeting at best.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Sorry Potter fans, but I think this ones out.

Film: The Help
Going For It: Strong word-of-mouth. Surprise hit of the year. Cast features mostly women and practically everyone is going to see it.
Going Against It: Cast features mostly women (men outnumber women in the Academy). There's concerns about how race and relations are portrayed.
Chances of Getting Nominated: I'll be surprised if this one isn't in.

Film: Midnight In Paris
Going For It: Smart script. Weird premise that works. Woody Allen usually gets at least a screenplay nomination.
Going Against It: Movie might be too lighthearted. Allen is still a somewhat controversial figure in the movie world.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Eh...bit of a toss up at the moment.

Film: The Tree of Life
Going For It: Extremely artsy. Critics love it. Terrence Malick alone carries a lot of respect with the Academy members. Won the Palm d'Or for Best Picture at the Cannes Film Festival.
Going Against It: Audiences hate it. Most people don't get it. About as non-traditional an Oscar movie as you get.
Chances of Getting Nominated: Very little...much as I hate to admit it.

Viola Davis's Oscar Campaign Needs 'Help'

This week "The Help" crossed the $100 million dollar mark.  It shows once again that making smart films for older women is an untapped market that Hollywood needs to stop ignoring.  It's avoided a lot of controversy on the basis that people of different ages, colors, and genders love it.  It makes you feel good, but it doesn't sugarcoat things.  All these reasons make it one to watch for Best Picture, and few will argue that.  However, there IS an argument that is circling the web: Viola Davis's performance!  Many people agree that it is an Oscar worthy performance and worthy of a nomination.  The debate is this: Will be be nominated in the lead category or the supporting category?  I find this to be a stupid question to ask, but one that is being asked none-the-less.

Davis's character narrates the film.  The film opens with her.  It closes with her.  She is instrumental to getting Skeeters (Emma Stones character) book project off the ground.  She tells the most personal stories in the film.  In my mind there is no question: She is the lead performance in this film.  You can't even describe the film without mentioning her.  Yet the debate is that she might get put in the supporting category because its easier to win there.  That may be a good publicist move, but in my eyes its a huge disservice to what this film is trying to say.  I'm wondering if the irony of this debate has registered with anyone but me, but am I the only one who finds it odd that we're considering putting Davis in the supporting category when the film really is about her?  Isn't this the kind of lower class profiling that the film fights so hard against?

This whole movie is about black women making their voice heard in a world that is unwilling to listen to them.  That a white woman helps get their voice out does not take away from the fact that its their stories that are being told.  In a sense, that makes this movie their movie as well.  I don't mind Octavia Spencer getting all the buzz for being a potential nominee for Best Supporting Actress.  She deserves all the praise she's getting, but her part is much smaller compared to other characters in this film.  Davis though...without her character there is no movie.  Period.  It's really about her in every single way.  How society dictated what she does with her life.  The dilemma that she spends more time raising white kids then her own son.

That being a maid is not what she wants to do, but its the only thing she CAN do at this point!  It's her journey we sympathis most with.  If Davis does get an Oscar nomination she will have deserved it.  If she wins it will be because she gave the best performance of the year.  If it's in the supporting category though I think it will be a sad commentary on how much society REALLY views black women these days!