Sizing Up The Directors 2011 (Midyear Predictions)

Well, it's time for our annual tradition of sizing up the directors and which ones stand a chance of getting a Best Director nomination.  Though the Academy has kind of/sort of reduced the Best Picture nominees down to five again, it could STILL go as high as ten, which makes the Best Director race all the more complicated!  There are so far NINE directors who (thus far) have a good chance at a nomination.  I'm going to discuss the first six whose films I've seen and tackle the last few in the next article

Name: Woody Allen
Current Film: "Midnight In Paris"
Nominated Before?: Yes, for "Annie Hall," "Interiors," "Broadway Danny Rose," "Hannah and Her Sisters," "Crimes and Misdemeanors," and "Bullets Over Broadway"
Won Before?: Yes, for "Annie Hall"

Going For Him/Her:  Woody Allen is one of Hollywood's best directors. He's directed many classic comedies and dramas, and has been nominated for this award even when some of his films aren't nominated for Best Picture.

Going Against Him/Her:  With a potential ten nominees, there's a chance the direction nominations will lean once more towards spectacle rather then acting.  Except for the picture and the screenplay, there's not a whole lot to suggest this is a directors film.  Has won this award before.

My Verdict:  I'm going to say yes, but Allen could easily lose his footing in this race as more films open.

Name: George Clooney
Current Film: "The Ides of March"
Nominated Before?: Yes, for "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Won Before?: No

Going For Him/Her:  Clooney composes of the entire package of his film.  This makes his film more of a directors film than all the others.

Going Against Him/Her:  Some people feel "The Ides of March" says nothing new.  Visually his film is the least exciting potential Best Picture nominee.

My Verdict:  Unless other films just drown him, he's in.

Name:  Terrence Mallick
Current Film:  "The Tree of Life"
Nominated Before?:  Yes, for "The The Thin Red Line."
Won Before?:  No.

Going For Him/Her:  "The Tree of Life" is one of the most visually stunning films of the year.  He's one of the most acclaimed directors who have never won an award. He's riding high on his win of the Palm d'Or.

Going Against Him/Her:  The movie has - for lack of a better term - been received lukewarmly.  Some love it, some hate it.  Most are confused.  He refuses interviews.

My Verdict:  I think he's in.  Even if "The Tree of Life" isn't an awards favorite the direction can not be ignored.

Name:  Bennett Miller
Current Film:  "Moneyball"
Nominated Before?:  Yes, for "Capote."
Won Before?:  No

Going For Him/Her:  "Moneyball" is a critical hit.  This movie has that "whole package" feel that voters love.

Going Against Him/Her:  It's not a flashy or stylish film compared to other movies this year.  Of all the things discussed, the direction is not one of them.

My Verdict:  Miller may have directed a great movie, but I don't think that will translate to a Best Director nomination.

Name: Nicolas Winding Refn
Current Film:  "Drive"
Nominated Before?:  No
Won Before?:  No

Going For Him/Her:  "Drive" is one of the most visual films of the year.  It's critically acclaimed for creating a new form of action genre.  He came out of nowhere.

Going Against Him/Her:  He came out of nowhere.  Is a relative unknown.  "Drive" has not caught on with audiences.  Film is very dark.

My Verdict:  He's in.  Of this I'm pretty confident.

Name:  David Yates
Current Film:  "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II"
Nominated Before?:  No
Won Before?:  No

Going For Him/Her:  "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II" is the most successful film of the year.  It's one of the best reviewed.  It ends the most successful movie franchise on a high note.

Going Against Him/Her:  It's Harry Potter.  Not to be mean but...well, that's kind of a tough sell to the Academy no matter how good the direction is.

My Verdict:  No.  Just...no.

Back In Game: The State of the Race

Well, more than a year after I stopped updating this blog I thought I would never return to it. To be honest, I almost deleted this blog because I felt it was just taking up space.  Well, a recent book project I'm working on (which I'll discuss more about in a few days) sort of jolted me back to this blog, and I realized that this blog still may have some usefulness to it.  So how do I make my grand return?  Why, but discussing the state of the race.  And there are three films I want to focus on.  The first two are the closest things to locks on a Best Picture nomination, with a third that sounds like a sure thing on paper (but a long shot in practice).  The first is Terrence Malick's very polarizing "The Tree of Life."  Though praised by many (including myself) as a masterpiece that must been seen to be believed, it never-the-less has not caught on with the public.

They don't get it.  They wonder what the point of it is.  The non-linear structure confuses them.  I think most people go in expecting a story and don't realize that "The Tree of Life" is a movie more about ideas than what happens to the characters on screen.  I know that sounds strange, but that's pretty much what it is.  Despite it clearly being the best film of the year so far, this is the same Academy who awarded "The King's Speech" (a good movie by the way) a Best Picture nomination over the more ambitious "The Social Network."  Why?  Hard to tell, but there was a lot of talk that most members of the Academy didn't even know what Facebook was.  If THAT was a problem, I see "The Tree of Life" having a much steeper climb!  The other movie that seems like a good bet right now is Woody Allen's "Midnight In Paris."  Ironically, this is the polar opposite of "The Tree of Life."

This is a movie that is story driven, has well defined characters, and have a journey and destination in mind.  That fact that it's popular AND smart makes this a good bet even if the coming months should bring us more ambitious films!  Part me is still a little cynical of the idea that the Academy would nominate this for Best Picture when they couldn't bring themselves to nominate "Match Point" for anything other than it's screenplay, but with the Best Picture number that could be anywhere between five to ten films...well, anythings possible.  And then we have...

..."Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II."  None of the Harry Potter films have won Best Picture.  None of the Harry Potter films have won any Oscars.  Most of the movies are critically mixed.  But "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II" could change all that.  It's opened to the best reviews of the franchise.  It's got some of the best reviews of the year.  They match up (if not pass) the previous ten years Best Picture winners.  Not to mention audiences around the world are eating it up to the point where it could potentially make more money than "The Dark Knight" and "Avatar."  If this was any other movie, it would be automatically considered a strong Best Picture nominee (if not winner).  Since it's Harry Potter though, we're just going to have to wait and see if the Academy follows the audiences cheers.

With so little competition nobody knows anything yet.  Well, actually, I do know one thing: For the first time I can think of, Pixar has absolutely no chance of being nominated in Best Animated Feature.  That may make that race at least a little more interesting.