Sizing Up The Directors 2011 (Midyear Predictions)

Well, it's time for our annual tradition of sizing up the directors and which ones stand a chance of getting a Best Director nomination.  Though the Academy has kind of/sort of reduced the Best Picture nominees down to five again, it could STILL go as high as ten, which makes the Best Director race all the more complicated!  There are so far NINE directors who (thus far) have a good chance at a nomination.  I'm going to discuss the first six whose films I've seen and tackle the last few in the next article

Name: Woody Allen
Current Film: "Midnight In Paris"
Nominated Before?: Yes, for "Annie Hall," "Interiors," "Broadway Danny Rose," "Hannah and Her Sisters," "Crimes and Misdemeanors," and "Bullets Over Broadway"
Won Before?: Yes, for "Annie Hall"

Going For Him/Her:  Woody Allen is one of Hollywood's best directors. He's directed many classic comedies and dramas, and has been nominated for this award even when some of his films aren't nominated for Best Picture.

Going Against Him/Her:  With a potential ten nominees, there's a chance the direction nominations will lean once more towards spectacle rather then acting.  Except for the picture and the screenplay, there's not a whole lot to suggest this is a directors film.  Has won this award before.

My Verdict:  I'm going to say yes, but Allen could easily lose his footing in this race as more films open.

Name: George Clooney
Current Film: "The Ides of March"
Nominated Before?: Yes, for "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Won Before?: No

Going For Him/Her:  Clooney composes of the entire package of his film.  This makes his film more of a directors film than all the others.

Going Against Him/Her:  Some people feel "The Ides of March" says nothing new.  Visually his film is the least exciting potential Best Picture nominee.

My Verdict:  Unless other films just drown him, he's in.

Name:  Terrence Mallick
Current Film:  "The Tree of Life"
Nominated Before?:  Yes, for "The The Thin Red Line."
Won Before?:  No.

Going For Him/Her:  "The Tree of Life" is one of the most visually stunning films of the year.  He's one of the most acclaimed directors who have never won an award. He's riding high on his win of the Palm d'Or.

Going Against Him/Her:  The movie has - for lack of a better term - been received lukewarmly.  Some love it, some hate it.  Most are confused.  He refuses interviews.

My Verdict:  I think he's in.  Even if "The Tree of Life" isn't an awards favorite the direction can not be ignored.

Name:  Bennett Miller
Current Film:  "Moneyball"
Nominated Before?:  Yes, for "Capote."
Won Before?:  No

Going For Him/Her:  "Moneyball" is a critical hit.  This movie has that "whole package" feel that voters love.

Going Against Him/Her:  It's not a flashy or stylish film compared to other movies this year.  Of all the things discussed, the direction is not one of them.

My Verdict:  Miller may have directed a great movie, but I don't think that will translate to a Best Director nomination.

Name: Nicolas Winding Refn
Current Film:  "Drive"
Nominated Before?:  No
Won Before?:  No

Going For Him/Her:  "Drive" is one of the most visual films of the year.  It's critically acclaimed for creating a new form of action genre.  He came out of nowhere.

Going Against Him/Her:  He came out of nowhere.  Is a relative unknown.  "Drive" has not caught on with audiences.  Film is very dark.

My Verdict:  He's in.  Of this I'm pretty confident.

Name:  David Yates
Current Film:  "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II"
Nominated Before?:  No
Won Before?:  No

Going For Him/Her:  "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II" is the most successful film of the year.  It's one of the best reviewed.  It ends the most successful movie franchise on a high note.

Going Against Him/Her:  It's Harry Potter.  Not to be mean but...well, that's kind of a tough sell to the Academy no matter how good the direction is.

My Verdict:  No.  Just...no.

The Double Hitter Oscars?

Never before in all the years I've been watching the Oscars have I seen anything like the potential number of double nominees this year. We have not one, not two, not three, but FOUR actors who are battling themselves in Oscar potential!

George Clooney is the one who stands to get the most Oscar nominations next year. He's a strong contender to be nominated for Best Actor in “The Descendants” and Best Supporting Actor in “The Ides of March.” He also is favored to get nominations for Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay for “The Ides of March,” and that film is looking like a Best Picture candidate (of which he is one of the producers). Left untouched, Clooney could be looking at FOUR Oscar nominations next year!

Another actor who could pull off a double nomination is Brad Pitt, who is getting rave reviews in his starring role for “Moneyball” and his supporting role in “The Tree of Life.” I think he's got a better chance at winning Best Actor, but a renewed interest in “The Tree of Life” could give this film an unexpected come awards time (and Pitt a Best Supporting Actor nomination).

Philip Seymore Hoffman is also on a role as he delivers two stand out performances in “Moneyball” as a skeptical coach, and in “The Ides of March” as a campaigner who values loyalty above all else. Since both these performances could be run in the Best Supporting Actor category, he can only be nominated for one. If it comes down to it, I think his performance in “The Ides of March” is the juicier role (and Jonah Hill is getting more praise for his supporting role in “Moneyball”).

The true wild card in all this is Ryan Gosling though. He delivers two star making performances in “Drive” and “The Ides of March.” While I believe his performance in “Drive” is the better performance, both performances are so loved that he might split the vote and wind up getting nominated for neither film.

 

There's some talk that Jessica Chastain could be nominated for Best Supporting Actress for either “The Tree of Life” or “The Help,” but I'm not completely buying it. Her performance in “The Tree of Life” is poetic, but since its silent the Academy could rule that Terrence Malicks direction is giving the real performance there. As for her performance in “The Help”...its more likely, but Octavia Spencer is running away with the Oscar talk here, so I'm skeptical. Either way, its going to be VERY interesting to see how this all plays out!

Ryan Gosling To “Drive” To Oscar

Well folks, there's another movie to keep an eye on: “Drive.” This action film has opened soft at the box office (a little over $4 million on the opening day), but the rave reviews are piling up. It appears to be a “love or hate it” film, but so far more people seem to love it than hate it. It's not even polarizing female audiences, which is amazing since “Drive” is being advertised as a more mature version of “The Fast & The Furious” (though I still conclude that “Fast Five” was the most pleasant surprise for me this year). The general praise from all the reviews Rotten Tomatoes picked up on is “a hyper-stylized blend of striking imagery and violence, Drive represents a fully realized vision of arthouse action.”

So what we have is a summer movie that was so artsy, that the studios decided to release it later in the year to capitalize more on the awards than the summer crowds. Did the studio do this because they trusted the more serious movie fans to carry this better than the teenage summer crowd that normally abandons movies after their opening weekend? Who knows. Aside from people commenting on how artful the film is though, the main praise is going to Ryan Gosling. His performance is considered the driving force behind this movie (no pun intended...if you want to believe me), and though he's young, there are few major performances so far this year that are challenging it. So far his biggest competition is George Clooney (ironically, his co-star of the upcoming “The Idles of March”) in “The Descendants,” Jean Dujardin in “The Artist,” and Michael Fassbender in “Shame.”

So what chance does he stand of winning? So far...hard to say, the movies listed above have yet to be seen by the audiences, so its hard to decide how this will swing. Here's a few things to consider though. First of all, George Clooney is clearly the biggest threat because his film HAS been seen by a good chunk of critics, and the buzz is already building! That said, he's won an Oscar, and that (sadly) sometimes counts against you). Jean Dujardin is riding high on the praise of “The Artist,” but he's largely an unknown, and that could hurt him. Michael Fassbender is known to audiences as Magneto from “X-Men: First Class,” but his role in “Shame” is that of a sex addict, which might be a rather challenging film for members of the Academy to go for.

One thing seems certain though: Gosling is in for a Best Actor nomination. Maybe more performances will come along, but this seems like a safe bet. “Drive” also seems to be in a good position for supporting nods, art direction nods, and even a Best Picture nod doesn't seem out of the question at this point. It will all come down to a couple big things: Whether the Academy and audiences embrace the film, and whether or not they “like” it enough to give it the nominations.

Animated Race Gets More 'Fantastic' By The Day

I know I've said it before, but the Best Animated Feature race actually feels like a race this year.  Though people predict that Pixar's "Up" will walk away with the prize (as well as a Best Picture nomination) I can't help but feel that in a year with such strong contenders, Pixar won't be the favorite to win even if their film is the best of the bunch.  They've won this award four times already.  In fact they've won the previous two years.  I think one of these others films is going to walk home with the gold, and our good friend "The Fantastic Mr. Fox" looks to be another contender in this race.