When the Academy announced earlier this year that the Best Picture nominees would be give five additional nominees it changed many things about the race this year. However no race has been affected by this as much as the Best Director race. With only five nominees here a Best Director nominee could really boost a films chance to win the top prize at the Oscars. Not only that, but with ten nominees directors will likely get their nominations more on spectacle and interesting camera movements, and intimate acting may not factor in the directors favor as much. Right now there are 12 people that I can think of who have people talking "nomination" around them. I'm going to look at these people and dissect which ones have the best shot at making the nominated five (in my opinion of course).
Name: Lee Daniels
Current Film: "Precious"
Nominated Before?: No
Won Before?: No
Going For Him/Her: Lee Daniels is easily a front runner because he's made one of "the" movies of the year. "Precious" is riding a wave of good press and public love that is rarely seen in independent films these days, and his unusual casting choices work wonderfully in this film despite sounding like complete misfires on paper.
Going Against Him/Her: With ten nominees there's a chance the direction nominations willlean more towards spectacle rather then acting. Voters might vote on acting quality by voting for the actors even though directors have a huge role in this process.
My Verdict: I think Daniels has a great shot of getting a nomination. He has little going for him, though I doubt his direction will actually win even if the movie is the big winner.
Name: Steven Soderberg
Current Film: The Informant
Nominated Before?: Twice. For "Traffic" and "Erin Brockovich."
Won Before?: Yes, for "Traffic"
Going For Him/Her: Soderberg is always experimenting with film. He makes experimental films and Hollywood successes with ease. "The Informant" feels experimental but is widely accessible to most audiences.
Going Against Him/Her: Some people feel Matt Damon is the real reason this movie works. Soderberg has won before. There's not a whole lot of obvious "directorial touches" in the film.
My Verdict: I think praise for "The Informant" has come and gone and only Damon is talked about now, so I think he's out.
Name: Michael Mann
Current Film: "Public Enemies"
Nominated Before?: Yes, for "The Informant."
Won Before?: No.
Going For Him/Her: "Public Enemies" was a mild summer hit. It was a summer film that was intelligent for once. Interesting use of digital film making.
Going Against Him/Her: The movie isn't talked about much. Some felt the digital camera was used poorly.
My Verdict: I think he's out. If Johnny Depp is looking shaky then Mann is certainly in trouble.
Name: James Cameron
Current Film: "Avatar"
Nominated Before?: Yes, for "Titanic."
Won Before?: Yes, for "Titanic."
Going For Him/Her: Cameron aims big. His movies are visual wonders to behold. Has a good track record of taking financial gambles and turning them into money making hits. "Avatar" has too much pizazz to be ignored.
Going Against Him/Her: Some feel Cameron is indulgent. Science fiction is rarely nominated and has never won. Has won this award for a movie many people feel was never good in the first place.
My Verdict: I think if "Avatar" is even half as good as the hype claims it is he's in. Cameron is one of the few mainstream film makers the Academy loves mainly BECAUSE he's mainstream!
Name: Peter Doctor
Current Film: Up
Nominated Before?: No
Won Before?: No
Going For Him/Her: "Up" has a good possibility of being the first animated film since "Beauty & The Beast" to get a nomination for Best Picture. Two of the most memorable scenes of the year are in this film. He's directed the most memorable film of the year (thus far).
Going Against Him/Her: The Academy feels that animation contains no real direction (or acting or production for that matter).
My Verdict: Though it would make the race VERY interesting I don't think this is going to happen! The chances are pretty slim.
Name: Kathryn Bigelow
Current Film: "The Hurt Locker"
Nominated Before?: No
Won Before?: No
Going For Him/Her: "The Hurt Locker" has stuck around since it's spring release to be noticed as one of the years best. The direction is so solid more people are talking about the direction over the movie itself.
Going Against Him/Her: The movie came out in spring. The picture itself is not favored to be nominated in the Best Picture category anymore. A woman has never won this award.
My Verdict: I think she's in. Even if "The Hurt Locker" isn't nominated Bigelow's direction has been praised too much to ignore.
Stay tuned for part 2...
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