Ron Howard In The Running?

They say anything can happen in the Oscar game, and we've been seeing that happen all year. The potential for a superhero film to get a Best Picture nomination? Check. A comeback nomination for an actor who destroyed his career by jumping on a couch? Check. An animated film being more impressive then many live action efforts? Check. And now, we're starting to see a potential winner in Ron Howard's "Frost/Nixon." Now even though I was looking forward to this film all year round, the Oscar potential seemed slim. At best a Best Actor nomination for Frank Langella and not much more. But early reviews are trickling in and the critics can't stop raving about the film. They are calling it one of Howard's best films since "Apollo 13." They love the performaces of Michael Sheen and Langella. Some people have claimed it to be superior to the Broadway play. If audiences respond well to the film we might have a front-runner on our hands. Nothing is certain as the reviews that have leaked are few and far between, and the critical reception can change by the end of the weekend, but for now, during a year when we're worried about filler nominations in the top category, this is certainly something to pay attention to.

This also comes off some early reviews for "Doubt," a movie that was singled out as being a sure Best Picture nominee, but thanks to some lukewarm early reviews...well, not to make a bad pun, but the nominations looking more doubtful now. This is actually a very good example of why no one knows anything with the Oscar race, and why making predictions before a films release is futile. Most of the early buzz is simply smart marketing from studio executives who want their films nominated anyway. Both "Doubt" and "Frost/Nixon" are remakes of stage plays. Earlier in the year "Doubt" looked like a sure bet while "Frost/Nixon" looked like a long shot. Now the situation has been reversed. It's been very likely that at least one of the stage movies would be nominated (there's too few slots for both), but it's very funny how we're singing a different tune as to which will be nominated now. I look forward to seeing both films, and I'll give my thoughts on them when I see them.

Cases For and Against Potential Nominees

A new predictions chart has appeared over at Awards Daily.com showing that there are five films that are predicted to be nominated for Best Picture at the end of the year ("The Dark Knight" just missed the boat, appearing at number six). Now I obviously haven't seen all of these films, but let's look at the films and, based on the trailers and posters alone, pick up some of the pros and cons of the material:

Number 1

Frost/Nixon

Cases For Nomination

• Academy Award winner Ron Howard is directing it.



• Frank Langella and Michael Sheen are looking promising.



• It's a biopic. The Academy LOVES biopics!



• It's about a lousy Republican President. The voters tend to be very liberal and eat this stuff up.



• If John McCain wins election the voters will likely vote this film in just to make a point.

Cases Aginst Nomination

• Ron Howard hasn't directed anything of much critical acclaim in the last few years.



• The subject matter might not be compelling enough to make it great.



• If Barack Obama wins voting for this film could create a backlash for kicking the opposing party while their down

Final Verdict: Unless the movie isn't good I'd say this is a pretty good bet for a nomination.

Number 2

Milk

Cases For Nomination

• Love for Gus Van Sants "Good Will Hunting" could carry over to this film.



• It's a biopic. The Academy LOVES biopics!



• Sean Penn looks like a scene stealer, which could help seeing as he's in the lead role.



• With bills debating on whether or not gay marriage is to be legalized the subject matter will be difficult to ignore.



• If voters vote down legalizing gay marriage the voters will give this film a synpathy vote.

Cases Against Nomination

• Though the trailer looks promising the movie could be a one man show (AKA: "Capote").



• The gay facter could be offputting.

Final Verdict: I think this ones in.

Number 3

The Curious Case of Benjaman Button

Cases For Nomination

• Brad Pitt attracts a lot of Academy attention



• David Fincher has been racking up critical hit after critical hit, and he's sure to be honored somewhere along the line.



• The trailer looks so very intriguing.

Cases Against Nomination

• The book isn't as popular with the general audience



• Brad Pitt tends to get more acclaim in supporting roles then leading roles.



• The secrecy surrounding this movie could hurt it in the long run.



• May be too weird for the voters taste.

Final Verdict: I personally don't see this film getting nominated unless the reviews are really, really good.

Number 4

Slumdog Millionaire

Cases For Nomination

• Raves reviews coming from Sundance



• Would fill the "uplifting comedy" criteria.



• Witty screenplay could get a big push from the writers.



• Audience discovery could make this a surprise hit at the box office.

Cases Against Nomination

• Raves could cool down.



• Audiences might not connect to film, and thus not see it.

Final Verdict: This is one of those cases where we really won't know until it's released. On paper it sounds like a sure hit, but you never know.

Number 5

Revolutionary Road

Cases For Nomination

• Kate and Lwo reunite for the first time since "Titanic."



• Subject of marriage that traps freedom ressonates more today then ever before.



• Sam Mendes first major hit since "American Beauty?"

Cases Against Nomination

• Reuion has gotten relatively little attention.



• Sam Mendes isn't an Academy favorite.



• "American Beauty" has held up poorly.



• Movies about lovely marriages are a dime a dozen since "American Beauty" was released.



• Audience anticipation for this movie is lower then the rest of the potential nominees.

Final Verdict: I'm not convinced this is going to get nominated. It might, but I would not put any stock in it happening.

Hey this was fun. How about we do this in a few days with the next potential five?

"Frost/Nixon" Poster Reveled

The poster for Ron Howard's anticipated bio-pic "Frost/Nixon" has been released. Notice how the pressure is on Langella. This is looking better by the day.