Australia Is Down For The Count

And so another Oscar potential has opened to average reviews and has all but tanked in it's chances to get Oscar nominations. Oh don't get me wrong, there is likely some nominations in the cards. Art direction, score, song, cinematography, and costumes are all a given for this film. But Best Picture, director, actress, screenplay, and so forth...that may be asking too much. If this movie gets any major award nomination it will be for Hugh Jackman for Best Actor, who actually steals every scene he is in and has played a role that will solidify him as an A-list actor. So why do I have this under the Best Picture predictions on the side-bar? Well, basically, this movie still has a slimmer of a chance in getting nomination.

That slimmer would involve the movie making a lot of money, and the opening weekend could suggest a nomination despite some of the problems with the film. So for now we'll wait and see how it does over Thanksgiving weekend. If it makes decent money, we'll keep it there for a couple more weeks. If it doesn't, then it will be gone by Tuesday (in time for you to pick up "The Dark Knight" on either DVD or BluRay). I did see the movie tonight and I'll be writing a full review soon, but to sum it up easily I'll use the term Oscar hopeful's hate to hear: It was good but not great.

Bale For Best Actor?

Warner Bros. is pushing hard for "The Dark Knight" to get a Best Picture nomination. Heath Ldger's nomination is a lock, with Aaron Eckart as a dark horse for a potential additional Best Supporting Actor nominee. Warner has been printing lots of ads, but aside from from the ads that do that silly "For Your Consideration In All Categories" ads, Warner has been focusing on four specific categories: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Actor. Wait a minute? Best Actor? Who are they pimping for Best Actor? Could they be pushing for Ledger for bother categories? No, they aren't. Besides, with Ledger having a lock on a win for the supporting race, Warner Bros. wouldn't want to jeoperdize that win. No, they are pushing for Christian Bale to get a nomination in the lead slot. Which is interesting because Bale, up until now, has not been given much respect for this movie, constantly being overshadowed by Ledger.

Now it looks like Warner Bros. is realizing what a great performace this is, and so they are pushing hard for it. It would add more credability to the film if they got a lead actor nomination. However, I don't think this is going to happen, and not because the field is too crowded. No, the reason it's not going to happen is this: Bale is not the lead actor in this film. None of the actors are. "The Dark Knight," at heart, is an essamble film. No key characters gets more or less screen time as the other characters, and when they do it's minimal at best. Bale may play Batman, but Batman has as much screentime as Joker and Gordon. Single him out as a lead is playing favorites in a cast where no actor is more or less important then the other. The only actor to get a significant less amount of screentime was Maggie Gyllenhaal, who is the only character who truly comes off as a "supporting" character if there is one.

Still, since there is such a big push, and since "The Dark Knight" is likely to be one of the biggest Oscar contenders this year, I'm going to put Bales name on the sidebar. Don't expect this to last though. In the next few weeks we've got "Australia," "Milk," "Frost/Nixon," "The Wrestler," and all these other movies that will more then likely push Bale off the rader (if he was ever there). For now though, best of luck to Warner Bros. on their Oscar campaign.

Updating Sidebars

Now that I've got time to update this site again I've decided it was about time to revamp the predictions sidebar. The biggest difference you'll notice is that I've added "Changeling" to many different categories. I still don't think this is Best Picture material (though it was good), but the Academy loves Clint, and this has some stylish cimematography and good acting to make Oscar take notice should the nomination potentials look too grim (which they are starting to). I'm going to hold firm that I believe Clint other film, "Gran Torino," will be the film getting the Best Picture nomination. I've also moved "The Dark Knights" screenplay to Best Adapted Screenplay because that box looks so lonely (and "The Dark Knight" could go either way with the screenplay at this point). I've also removed "The Dark Knight" from the Best Score category, since the Academy officially anounced it was not eligdable for that award.

Also (and I know this is a long shot) I fell Kevin Smith's raunchy comedy "Zack and Miri Make A Porno" has a halfway decent shot at getting a Best Original Screenplay nomination, so I'm going to include it for now and see how it looks. Again, not likely, but I'm feeling a bit crazy right now. Other then that there are a few minor changes here and there. Looking forward to next week when "Australia" opens, and we can see how much Best Picture potential that epic troubled film has.

What Happened To Ponyo?

Hey everyone, sorry about the lack of updates I've been...well, I've been in Japan. Enjoying a bit of the world. I enjoyed myself so much I'm looking into moving there for a period of time in a few years. But the real reason I bring this up is because while in Japan I had the good fortune to be able to catch Hayao Miyazaki's latest film, "Ponyo on a Cliff," in theaters...

...and considering this movie was considered by many people (myself included) to be "Wall•E's" biggest competition I felt it only fitting to comment on it. Now, as we found out a week ago this movie will not be elidgible for the Best Animated Feature category this year (most likely because the movie won't be released domestically until next year). However, this doesn't upset me too much. In fact, I think this is a good thing because while this movie is good, it was NOT going to beat "Wall•E" (unless, of course, the Academy votes for another movie just because Pixar wins too many awards these days)! Now I have to admit that my Japanese is not the best, but "Ponyo on a Cliff" was simplistic enough that I was able to follow it with little trouble. This film has more in common with "My Neighbor Totoro" then "Spirited Away." That basically means it's a movie made for small children.

This is not a bad thing though as Miyazaki makes some of the most magical and charming children's movies out there, and Ponyo is no different. With pure handdrawn animation (no computers), vibrant watercolors, and Joe Hisaishi's best score since "Princess Mononoke," "Ponyo on a Cliff" may be simple, but it's darn difficult not to be won in by it's charms. The fact that it's more of a charming film then an important film could have hurt it's Oscar chances this year, so it being in next years race will bode better for it's chances at a win. That said, is there any movie that can upset "Wall•E" at this point? Well, yes, now that I think about it. There are two in fact. The is "Waltz with Bashir"...

...which could win on the grounds that it's an important, adult oriented film. The Academy has yet to award an adult animation an Oscar in this category though, and the category is still looked at as, more or less, Best Family Feature. Which means the biggest competition "Wall•E" has at this point...

...is Disney's own "Bolt," which has won critics over and completely surprised the public. Here is a movie that is family friendly, looks to make a lot of money, and didn't look all that interesting until people actually watched it. It also has the advantage of being released by Disney who, despite pioneering animation in feature film, has yet to win an award in this category. This could be the make-up award from the Academy should Pixar fatique set in. Either way the animated category is looking the most competitive it's been since "Spirited Away" and "Lilo & Stitch" duked it out in 2002. Should be an interested year for animation come Oscar time.

Oprah Says "Vote Australia"

I just want to get this out in the open: I can't stand Oprah. One of the most powerful women in the world, she commands way too much power from the public. She can control the book best seller list, she effects the election without having to make any valid arguments, and her political agenda has become something to scorn at recently. That said when she endources something that normally means a lot of love and money will follow that endourcement. Recently that movie was "Australia," a movie that is being watched carefully as we don't know whether it will be an epic orgy or epic failure. With recent talks that the ending is being re-filmed so that it's happy also has people concerned. Whatever cut of the film Oprah saw though is irrelivent, as she's officially declared it the best film of the year. She even went as far as to say it's the best film she's seen in a long time.

I wonder how many movies she watches a year. Watching her show I don't get a sense that she watches many movies at all. She's also missed some modern classics like "Wall-E," "The Dark Knight" and "Rachael Getting Married," so I'm taking this quote with a grain of salt. The question now is this: Will this effect "Australia's" Oscar chances? Possibly. Oprah was one of the key reasons "Crash" won a couple of years ago, so it seems likely "Australia" is getting a truckload of nominations based on her alone. Will it win any? That's even more hard to say, but this certainly has made the race much more interesting.

Animated Films Are Announced (Kind of)

The Academy has released a list of the animated films that will be eligible for nomination in the Best Animated Feature category. The list is:

“Bolt”
“Delgo”
“Dr. Seuss’ Horton Hears a Who!”
“Dragon Hunters”
“Fly Me to the Moon”
“Igor”
“Kung Fu Panda”
“Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa”
“$9.99”
“The Sky Crawlers”
“Sword of the Stranger”
“The Tale of Despereaux”
“WALL-E”
“Waltz with Bashir”

I think "Wall-E" is a given. The second slot will likely go to "Waltz with Bashir" (which I haven't seen, but it certainly looks way better then most of these movies). The third nomination will likely go to "Kung Fu Panda" or "The Tale of Despereaux." I can't see "Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa" getting nominated, but if there's an upset (and there usually is in this category) then chances are this is the one. Oh, and this means "Speed Racer" is obviously not a contender for this award anymore. The big question about this list is what happened to "Star Wars: The Clone Wars." Not that I want to see that movie win, but considering it's an animated film there's no reason for it to not be here. Oh well, maybe that will change (and if it does become eligible then that means five films will be nominated instead of three).